Friday, October 10, 2008
Solor Hibernation coming- period of long lasting cold weather the result.
1. Dr. Habibullo I. Abdussamatov: Russian Academy of Scientists. Head of space research at the Pulkova Observatory, St. Petersburg.
Comment: RIA Novosti, August 25, 2006: “Khabibullo Abdusamatov said he and his colleagues had concluded that a period of global cooling similar to one seen in the late 17th century – when canals froze in the Netherlands and people had to leave their dwellings in Greenland – could start in 2012-2105 and reach its peak in 2055-2060….He said he believed the future climate change would have very serious consequences and that authorities should start preparing for them today….”
2. David Archibald. Summa Development Limited. (Australia).
From his paper: Archibald, D.C., (2006), Solar Cycles 24 and 25 and predicted climate response, Energy and Environment, Vol.17, No.1.
Comment from paper: “Based on a solar maxima of approximately 50 for solar cycles 24 and 25, a global temperature decline of 1.5C is predicted to 2020 equating to the experience of the Dalton Minimum.”
3. Dr. O.G.Badalyan, and Dr.V.N. Obridko, Institute of Terrestrial Magnestism. Russia, Dr.J.Sykora. Astronomical Institute of the Slovak Academy of Sciences, Slovak Republic.
From their paper: Balalyan, O.G., V.N. Obridko, and J. Sykora, (2000), Brightness of the coronal green line and prediction for activity cycles 23 and 24, Solar Physics, 199: pp.421-435.
Comment from paper: “ A slow increase in (intensity of coronal green line) in the current cycle 23 permits us to forecast a low-Wolf-number (number of sunspots) cycle 24 with the maximum W~50 at 2010-2011.” (Note: a 50 sunspot level is a Dalton class minimum)
4. Dr. B. P. Bonev, Dr. Kaloyan M. Penev, Dr. Stefano Sello.
From their paper: Bonev, B.P., et. al., (2004), Long term solar variability and the solar cycle in the 21st century, The Astrophysical Journal, Vol. 605, pp.L81-L84.
Comment from their paper: “…we conclude that the present epoch is at the onset of an upcoming local minimum in long term solar variability.”
5. John L. Casey, Director, Space and Science Research Center. Orlando, Florida
From the center’s research report: Casey, John L. (2008), The existence of ‘relational cycles’ of solar activity on a multi-decadal to centennial scale, as significant models of climate change on earth. SSRC Research Report 1-2008 – The RC Theory, www.spaceandscience.net.
Comments from the research report:
“ As a result of the theory, it can be predicted that the next solar minimum may start within the next 3-14 years, and last 2-3 solar cycles or approximately 22-33 years. …It is estimated that there will be a global temperature drop on average between 1.0 and 1.5 degrees C, if not lower, at least on the scale of the Dalton Minimum. …This forecast next solar minimum will likely be accompanied by the coldest period globally for the past 200 years and as such, has the potential to result in world wide, agricultural, social, and economic disruption.”
6. Dr. Peter Harris. Engineer, retired, Queensland, Australia.
From his analysis of glacial and interglacial cycles he concludes: “…we can say there is a probability of 94% of imminent global cooling and the beginning of the coming ice age.”
7. Victor Manuel Velasco Herrera. Researcher at the National Autonomous University of Mexico.
His comments from his research released in August 2008: “…in two years or so, there will be a small ice age that lasts for 60-80 years.”
8. Dr’s. Y.T.Hong, H.B. Jiang, T.S. Liu, L.P.Zhou, J.Beer, H.D. Li, X.T.Leng, B.Hong, and X.G. Qin.
From their paper: Response of climate to solar forcing recorded in 6,000-year (isotope) O18 time-series of Chinese peat cellulose. The Holocene 10.1 (2000) pp. 1-7.
The Chinese team of researchers observed “…a striking correspondence of climate events to nearly all of the apparent solar activity changes.”
In showing O18 isotope measurements were high during the coldest periods they concluded, “If the trend after AD 1950 continues…the next maximum of the peat O18 (and therefore cold maximum) would be expected between about AD 2000 and AD 2050.”
9. Dr. Boris Komitov, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Institute of
Astronomy, and Dr. Vladimir Kaftan: Central Research Institute of Geodesy, Moscow.
From their paper: Komitov, B., and V. Kaftan, (2004), The sunspot activity in the last two millennia on the basis of indirect and instrumented indexes: time series models and their extrapolations for the 21st century, paper presented at the International Astronomical Union Symposium No. 223.
Comment from paper: “It follows from their extrapolations for the 21st century that a supercenturial solar minimum will be occurring during the next few decades….It will be similar in magnitude to the Dalton minimum, but probably longer as the last one.”
10. Dr. Theodor Landscheidt (1927- 2004), Schroeter Institiute for Research in Cycles of Solar Activity, Canada)
Among his comments from many years of research on solar climate forcing include: “Contrary to the IPCC’s speculation about man made warming as high as 5.8(degrees)C within the next hundred years, a long period of cool climate with its coldest phase around 2030 is to be expected.”
11. Dr. Ernest Njau: University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.
From his paper: Njau, E., (2005), Expected halt in current global warming trend?, Renewable Energy, Vol.30, Issue 5, pp.743-752.
Comment from paper: “… the mean ‘global temperature variations reaches the next peak about 2005 after which it will expectedly be on a decreasing trend. Finally it is shown that…Greenland is currently in an ongoing cooling trend which is expected to last up to at least the year 2035.”
12. Dr. Tim Patterson: Dept. of Earth Sciences, Carleton Univ., Can.
From an article in the Calgary Times: May 18, 2007. Indeed, one of the more interesting, if not alarming statements Patterson made before the Friends of Science luncheon is satellite data shows that by the year 2020 the next solar cycle is going to be solar cycle 25 – the weakest one since the Little Ice Age (that started in the 13th century and ended around 1860) a time when people living in London, England, used to walk on a frozen Thames River and food was scarcer. Patterson: “This should be a great strategic concern in Canada because nobody is farming north of us.” In other words, Canada – the great breadbasket of the world - just might not be able to grow grains in much of the prairies.
13.Dr’s. Ken K. Schatten and W.K.Tobiska.
From their paper presented at the 34th Solar Physics Division meeting of the American Astronomical Society, June 2003:
“The surprising result of these long range predictions is a rapid decline in solar activity, starting with cycle #24. If this trend continues, we may see the Sun heading towards a “Maunder” type of solar activity minimum – an extensive period of reduced levels of solar activity.”
14. Dr. Oleg Sorokhtin. Merited Scientist of Russia and Fellow of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences and researcher at the Oceanology Institute.
From recent news articles, regarding the next climate change he has said: “Astrophysics know two solar cycles, of 11 and 200 years. Both are caused by changes in the radius and area of irradiating solar surface….Earth has passed the peak of its warmer period and a fairly cold spell will set in quite soon, by 2012. real cold will come when solar activity reaches its minimum, by 2041,and will last for 50-60 years or even longer.”
15. Dr’s. Ian Wilson, Bob Carter, and I.A. Waite.
From their paper: Does a Spin-Orbit Coupling Between the Sun and the Jovian Planets Govern the Solar Cycle? Publications of the Astronomical Society of Australia 25(2) 85-93 June 2008).
Dr. Wilson adds the following clarification:
“It supports the contention that the level of activity on the Sun will significantly diminish sometime in the next decade and remain low for about 20-30 years. On each occasion that the Sun has done this in the past the World’s mean temperature has dropped by ~ 1-2 C.”
16. Dr’s. Lin Zhen-Shan and Sun Xian. Nanjing Normal University, China
From their paper in Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 95,115-121: Multi-scale analysis of global temperature changes and trend of a drop in temperature in the next 20 years.
“… we believe global climate changes will be in a trend of falling in the following 20 years.”
Thursday, October 9, 2008
NASA's Dr. David Hathaway cannot provide any clear scientific evidence that green house gases are driving climate change.
initial email to Dr. Hathaway:
Dr Hathaway,
I am NOT a scientist. However I am a tax paying citizen of North Carolina who plainly sees that the only "consensus" on man-made climate change is the one that is contained within the media pundits. Your group is the expert when it comes to our Sun. In May of 2006 you wrote:
"The slowdown we see now means that Solar Cycle 25, peaking around the year 2022, could be one of the weakest in centuries." Dr David Hathaway, NASA Web Release, May 2006."
The Director of The Space and Science Research Center, John Casey, has drawn the following conclusion from your research, in regards to how the Sun's cycle will affect our planet's climate:
"We today confirm the recent announcement by NASA that there are historic and important changes taking place on the sun's surface. They will have only one outcome – a new climate change is coming that will bring an extended period of deep cold to the planet."
Would you care to comment, for the record, on Mr. Casey's conclusions?
Dr Hathaway's initial response:
"His conclusion is based on the hypothesis that solar variability (the sunspot cycle) is the controlling factor in climate change. While there is evidence that solar variability does affect climate to some degree, it also appears that other factors – volcanoes, El Nino/La Nina, and greenhouse gases play more significant roles."
NCC02debate's follow up question (that Hathaway never responded to):
When you state that GHG's play a more significant role in global warming is your opinion informed from the IPCC data? So far every time I am able to get to the heart of all the newly formed government agencies in North Carolina to deal with the imminent doom of GW, they always end up pointing back to the fatally flawed computer models of the IPCC. Meantime, the American Northwest had its 2nd coolest Spring since 1894, Sydney Australia had its coolest Summer in 50 years, South Africa had its coldest day in September in recorded history with record snowfalls, and your agencies data suggests the ice cap has increased by 30%. I see a global trend here, but it is not looking very warm. Can you point me to any hard scientific evidence, published in a peer reviewed journal that links rising amounts of GHG's with anything more that a slight increase in global temperature?
But don't think that will stop the state from taxing us, and our businesses, for this newest pollutant. Write your legislators and ask them why they are spending our tax dollars to control c02 when there has been NO public debate of the issue?
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
The Director of North Carolina's State Climate Office tells NC Farm Bureau Insurance Company that North Carolina is NOT unseasonablly warm.
Ryan Boyles
Director of the North Carolina State Climate Office and member of the North Carolina Legislative Commission on Global Climate Change or, LCGCC, was recently asked about the origination of the term "Indian Summer". He in essence said that North Carolina is NOT currently any warmer than it has ever been. Boyles said:
"It really depends on how we define warm weather, The Carolina's, by definition, have an Indian Summer every year. But it's also not uncommon for us to have an ice storm one week and 60-degree temperatures the next. It's not really unseasonably warm weather for us."
My question for Dr Boyles is; how can North Carolina not be warming, when the IPCC has told us the globe is warming? In light of the normal weather NC is having how will that affect his view on the LCGCC? I sent Ryan the following email for a response about the article, but I shockingly got no reply.
North Carolina "not having unseasonably warm weather"
"I read that quote from you in the NC Farm Bureau September/October 2008 Vol 79 no.5 magazine. There are many places in North America, Australia, and Africa experiencing unusually cold weather. Can we finally say that global warming is called off?"
Your tax dollars are being high jacked to fight a hoax. Why, because NC is broke! As long as the issue of man made climate change remains, undebated, as the North Carolina Climate Change Advisory Group admitted, the beureacrats in Raleigh will continue to use it as a reuse to collect more taxes from you and I next year than they were able to last year. So let the spending continue! Let's see if we can set new spending records "trying to save the planet."
Does ANYONE know where Wonder Women's lasso of truth is....
Published by Editor under General, The Science Debate
Thanks to Watt’s Up With That for this deconstruction of Gore’s proclamation before Iowa Democrats that climate change has resulted in increased tornadoes, including the one that leveled much of Parkersburg earlier this year. “Yes, we’ve always had tornadoes in Iowa and in Tennessee,” he said. “But they’re coming more frequently and they’re stronger.”
The graph above suggests otherwise
It is blatent inaccuaracies like these that justify the debate I am calling my elected officials in North Carolina to engage in before they decide to start wasting our tax money on controlling c02! If we find out to late that snow load rated greenhouses were what we needed once again it will be the North Carolina taxpayer that will be left out in the cold.
Graph from NWS/NOAA. Smaller (F1) tornadoes seem to be on the increase, but not larger ones (F2-F5). This is likely due to increased reporting from Doppler Radar, storm chasers, and news gathering. Small tornadoes that once went unnoticed are now often reported, and make the news.
Gore is flat wrong.
Well it appears citizens of Alaska should hold off on that winter weather clothing yard sale sponsored by Al Gore and the IPCC.
Published by Editor under The Science Debate
Many thanks to TCE reader Donald Ferguson for forwarding this item from Weather.com to us.
…UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER CONTINUES AT FAIRBANKS…
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY AT THE FAIRBANKS INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT WAS 31 DEGREES. THIS WAS THE FIRST TIME THIS FALL THAT THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE FAILED TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK. ON AVERAGE THE
DATE OF THE FIRST DAY WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE BELOW FREEZING IS
OCTOBER 11TH. SO FAR THIS MONTH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE OF 38
DEGREES WAS OBSERVED ON THE 2ND.
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS MONTH OF 27.1 DEGREES IS 8.2
DEGREES BELOW THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE. IT HAS BEEN THE COLDEST FIRST 5
DAYS OF THE MONTH OF OCTOBER SINCE 1992.
More and more scientists are realizing the Sun's affects on the climate
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/10may_longrange.htm
http://www.spaceandscience.net/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderfiles/PressReleaseSSRC1-2008.doc
Farmers Almanac climatologist concurs with the findings of the SSRC
The Old Farmer’s Almanac is going further out on a limb than usual this year, not only forecasting a cooler winter, but looking ahead decades to suggest we are in for global cooling, not warming.
Based on the same time-honored, complex calculations it uses to predict weather, the Almanac hits the newsstands on Tuesday saying a study of solar activity and corresponding records on ocean temperatures and climate point to a cooler, not warmer, climate, for perhaps the next half century.
“We at the Almanac are among those who believe that sunspot cycles and their effects on oceans correlate with climate changes,” writes meteorologist and climatologist Joseph D’Aleo. “Studying these and other factor suggests that cold, not warm, climate may be our future.”
It’s just one voice, but it’s a voice that should get peoples’ attention.
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Should BIG ENERGY be allowed to influence how NC handles the climate change debate?
Dr. George T. Everett
Director of Environmental and Legislative Affairs
Duke Power
225 Hillsborough Place, Suite 160
Raleigh, NC 27603
(919) 235-0955
E-mail: gteverett@duke-energy.com
and
Ms. Caroline Choi
Director – Energy Policy & Strategy Progress Energy
410 South Wilmington Street
Suite 1505
Raleigh, NC 27601
(919)-546-3775
E-mail: caroline.choi@pgnmail.com
Now call me paranoid, but isn't that equivalent to letting The Cookie Monster guard the cookie jar?
I have had no correspondence with Mr Everett.
When I point blank asked Ms. Choi if her having a vote on the LCGCC would represent a clear conflict of interest, while working for an up-and-coming "green energy" utility company which has everything to gain should c02 become a government mandated pollutant,she did not respond. Shocking isn't it.
The following is taken directly from Progress Energy's website:
Progress Energy, headquartered in Raleigh, N.C., is a Fortune 250 energy company with more than 21,000 megawatts of generation capacity and $9 billion in annual revenues. The company will observe its 100th anniversary in 2008. Progress Energy includes two major utilities that serve 3.1 million customers in the Carolinas and Florida. The company is the 2006 recipient of the Edison Electric Institute's Edison Award, the industry's highest honor, in recognition of its operational excellence. The company also is the first utility to receive the prestigious J.D. Power and Associates Founder's Award for customer service. Progress Energy serves two fast-growing areas of the country, and the company is pursuing a balanced strategy for a secure energy future. That balance includes aggressive energy efficiency programs, investments in renewable energy technologies and a state-of-the-art electricity system. For more information about Progress Energy, visit the company's Web site at www.progress-energy.com.
A little old Nine Billion Dollar, Fourtune 250 company, poised to "help" NC get out of Duke Energy's frying pan, and right into a Progress Energy fire! Write to your NC elected representatives today and tell them you want to see this issue debated before it is too late!
Two Atmospheric Sciences professors confirm the Northwest has had the coldest Spring since 1917.
By Scott Sistek
Is your barbecue collecting dust? It wouldn't be surprising...
We've used all sorts of statistics to come up with how chilly a spring it's been, but now two Atmospheric Sciences professors at the University of Washington, Cliff Mass and Mark Albright, have come up with a new way to measure the gloom: The "Barbecue Index."
And sure enough, it confirms what you've known all along -- it's been a bit cooler than average this spring.
Mass and Albright defined this index as the number of times since March 11 (the average date they consider the unofficial start to spring-like weather in the Northwest) it has been 60 degrees or warmer.
Why 60? They concluded that most people are comfortable outside once the temperature gets to 60 or better.
They went back to 1894 -- the farthest back they could get records for Seattle. Their conclusion? This is the worst Barbecue Index since 1917!
So far this year since March 11, Seattle has only reached 60 degrees or warmer 23 times. That is second-worst all-time, coming in runner-up to 1917's 18 score on the index. (At least you haven't had to spend much time cleaning the grills!)
The median number is 42 days. The best years were 1934 (74 out of days) and 1992 (62 days).
I've pasted below at the bottom of this entry the entire scoreboard of the Barbecue Index.
Good Illustration Of Why Our "BI" Is So Low
E-mail continues to pour in asking about why we've been stuck in such a cool pattern for so long. I've touched on this on previous blog entries (check the archives in the center column there to your right).
Generally speaking, our big ridge of high pressure that normally parks just offshore this time of year is parked father west, sending the jet stream up into Alaska, then down southeast right into the Pacific Northwest. That's tapping into some much cooler air in the northern latitudes and sending it our way. Sort of like opening a big door to our north and letting that Alaska air just blow right in.
As to why, it can be La Nina, or a host of other climate factors. Note that it's been cool in spring before -- this is not unprecedented. While we are looking at possibly setting a record for coldest June ever recorded, there have been other years with cool springs. It's just been a while. It just hasn't been this cold in the past 20 or 30 or so years, and memories fade :)
Anyway, here is the forecast chart of the next 8 days, showing the progression of yet another cool system from Alaska that is forecast to head our way for the middle of next week (although this one looks much weaker than the one we just went through):
Let's begin with Wednesday. I superimposed a red "L" on the approximate center of the low. The black lines are isobars / lines of constant pressure. The red and blue-dotted lines are atmospheric thickness -- a measure of temperature. (The '540' line changes from red to blue because over most of the nation, that line signifies the rain/snow line. However, out here, 540 is more of a 3,000 foot snow level line, or "Snow at Snoqualmie Pass" line. For lowland snow, we need to get down to about 516-522). The brown lines are the geographic boundaries to get your bearings. If it helps, Washington is at the bottom there near the date stamp.
And then watch over the next week as the low drops south of out Alaska toward the Northwest:
So yes, the forecast for middle of next week is a return to cool and showery weather. Guess that means another trip to Dicks for burgers :)
All time BBQ Index List:
Here is the "BBQ Index" All Time List for the 92 days between March 11 to June 10:
1. 1934 74
2. 1992 69
3. 1941 69
4. 1947 66
5. 1940 63
6. 1926 61
7. 2004 60
8. 1994 60
9. 1915 58
10. 1989 58
11. 1979 57
12. 1939 57
13. 1995 56
14. 1900 56
15. 1935 55
16. 2005 54
17. 1987 53
18. 1906 52
19. 1914 51
20. 1942 51
21. 1907 50
22. 1951 50
23. 1936 50
24. 1983 50
25. 1949 49
26. 1990 49
27. 1993 49
28. 1977 49
29. 1897 48
30. 1958 48
31. 1956 48
32. 2007 48
33. 1944 48
34. 1931 48
35. 2006 48
36. 1938 47
37. 1910 47
38. 1978 47
39. 1976 47
40. 1943 47
41. 1946 47
42. 1930 47
43. 1997 46
44. 1969 46
45. 1973 45
46. 1957 45
47. 1898 45
48. 1952 45
49. 1968 45
50. 1904 45
51. 1945 44
52. 1905 44
53. 1988 44
54. 1928 44
55. 1980 43
56. 2000 43
57. 1924 42
58. 1895 42
59. 1972 42
60. 1937 41
61. 1981 41
62. 1966 41
63. 1960 41
64. 1963 41
65. 1991 41
66. 1965 41
67. 1998 40
68. 1925 40
69. 1919 40
70. 1923 39
71. 1974 39
72. 1996 39
73. 1982 39
74. 1918 39
75. 1932 39
76. 1902 39
77. 1901 38
78. 1986 38
79. 2003 38
80. 1912 38
81. 1985 38
82. 1903 36
83. 1950 36
84. 1970 36
85. 2001 36
86. 1967 35
87. 1975 35
88. 2002 35
89. 1948 34
90. 1933 34
91. 1962 34
92. 1971 34
93. 1954 34
94. 1896 33
95. 1961 33
96. 1929 33
97. 1913 33
98. 1959 33
99. 1964 32
100. 1953 32
101. 1927 32
102. 1909 31
103. 1916 31
104. 1999 31
105. 1984 31
106. 1894 30
107. 1921 30
108. 1922 29
109. 1911 29
110. 1955 27
111. 1899 27
112. 1920 26
113. 1908 23
114. 2008 23
115. 1917 18